Jordan: A nation in turmoil amid resurgence of people power

Arab Spring of 2011 changed Governments in Tunisia, Libya & Egypt, started a civil war in Syria and consumed it until now. It also changed the PM’s of Jordan, Kuwait and Yemen. Lifted emergency in Algeria after 19 years. 

All due to the anger of the people that resulted in massive protests with army called on the streets.

Now, financial stress on millions is back across the Middle East similar to 2011, all over again. 

Main reason for Arab Spring was joblessness, financial distress, inflation, higher taxes due to IMF loans etc. 

Exactly the same situation (worse) is bubbling in Jordan today and people are on the streets fighting for themselves and their families.

Saudi stopped financial support bringing Jordan down to it’s knees. 

Saudi and UAE do not have a choice but will need to support Jordan and it’s approx. one-third population of refugees (approx. 3m refugees out of total population of 9.5m).

Today, 10 June, there is an emergency meeting in Jordan with Saudi, UAE and Kuwait where some money may be released in lieu of which Jordan will need to pledge support to their policies.

If this does not work out, Jordan has a choice to seek support from the troika of Iran, Turkey and Qatar.

US has supported Jordan due to it’s border with Israel and many US troops that are stationed there.

Jordan had a free trade agreement with Turkey since 2010 that could not expand to Syria due to the Syrian civil war. This agreement was cancelled in early 2018.

Entire last week the citizens were protesting on the streets across Jordan, due to which PM was replaced, tax hikes withdrawn. 

Similar protests have recently occurred across Brazil and Iran where truckers have held strikes for several weeks in protest of rising prices of everything including petrol and diesel due to higher taxes.

However, the stark reality in Jordan is that bread has doubled, petrol is the highest price ever (50% more than US retail price and the highest in the Middle East) and business is dead due to regional wars all around while Saudi has stopped funding due to it’s own precarious financial condition.

Time has come for Jordan to choose sides (short term survival or longer term mutually respectful business oriented economic growth) else it can ready for a regime change like what almost happened in Lebanon in Nov 2017, in Egypt in 2013, Tunisia, Libya & Yemen in 2011.

Jordan scraped through in 2011, when oil was still high and GCC could support with unlimited cash.

What will happen today in 2018 in Jordan, when GCC is infighting itself, oil is half the price while GCC reserves have almost dried up?

And to think, it was all because of the need to pay back the IMF with higher taxes. 

It used to work, but doesn’t work around the world now, as the people are furious of being robbed by their Govts.

Jordan has arrived at a very difficult inflection point that will determine it’s future and that of it’s 9.5m citizens.

So, what will the King of Jordan choose? 

The fate of an entire nation and it’s destiny depends on his decision this month.

References:

Jordan has weathered its worst protests since the Arab Spring. But the storm isn’t over.

How can Jordan solve its economic crisis?

'We are trapped,' one Jordanian says as the country weighs tough choices from the IMF

Jordan is the new 'problem country' to join Qatar’s chorus of dissent