Saturday, June 9, 2018

FDI plunges worldwide: Deglobalization rises sharply by 10 times in 2017 vs 2016

I have argued at least since 2014 about a massive new global mega trend - "deglobalization.


This trend is accelerating rapidly with worldwide factory closures, bank closures, withdrawal of companies from various countries, bans including on trade and travel on multiple other nations, rising tariffs and trade barriers, new regulations including on visas, education etc.

Now even the data from UN is confirming the same.

In 2017, the global FDI dropped a massive 23.4%, a rise of 10 times just when compared to 2016.

In 2016, Global FDI dropped 2.8% as compared to 2015.

As cash flows worldwide dwindle and investors withdraw from investing abroad, the joblessness and impact on service providers such as banks, customs, tax revenues, real estate prices etc will be felt by millions around the world.


Canada:

India:
Not only FDI declined 10.3% in India but outflows doubled (a rise of 100%) to USD 11bn creating a double whammy.


Saudi Arabia:
Saudi incoming FDI plunged a massive 80.9%.


Vietnam:
Last year in 2017, Vietnam saw a rise of 11.9%, however, the first 5 months of 2018, they have seen a decline of 18.4%.


United Arab Emirates:
After seeing a 22.7% plunge in 2015, UAE saw a decent and healthy rise in FDI in 2017 of 7.8% to USD 10.3bn . However, UAE still has been unable to breach the peak of 2006 (USD 12bn) and 2007 (USD 14bn).

Select country FDI increases for 2017, per UN:

China (the giant) : 2% (healthy increase, steady as she goes).
Philippines: 37.7% increase (quadrupled since 2012 – rock star of the world!).
Indonesia: 488.2% (data could be misleading due to tax amnesty).
France : 41.6% increase (surprising!).
Cyprus : 200% (due to passport).
St Kitts: 50% increase (due to passport)
Antigua: 25.5% increase (due to passport).
Oman: 11.1% increase (taking business away from UAE and receiving from China).
Qatar: 27.4% increase (taking business away from UAE)
Sri Lanka: 53.3% increase (boom town!).
Pakistan: 13.2% increase (boom town!).
 Iran: 48.8% increase (massive boom town, more gains if regime changes in 2018!).
Costa Rica: 18.3% increase
El Salvador : 127.9% increase
Argentina: 263.7% increase


Select country FDI declines for 2017, per UN:

USA: 39.8% decline
Canada: 35% decline
UK: 92.3% decline
Finland: 88.6% decline
Netherlands: 32.4% decline
Luxembourg: 85.3% decline
Italy: 23.2% decline
Ukraine : 32.9% decline
Kazakhstan: 42.8% decline
Venezuela: went negative, 106.4% decline
Turkey: 16.1% decline
Singapore: 19.9% decline
Malaysia : 15.8% decline
India: 10.3% decline

Reference:


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