Wednesday, December 12, 2018

Unemployed Emiratis May See 100% Cut To Their Monthly Welfare Payments; UK Universities Boycott UAE, Rising Tolls & Closing Schools In Dubai

In what seems like a striking move in the UAE, the UAE Govt is going to cut the welfare payments for the most vulnerable Emiratis who are unemployed.

Idea is to push them all to go to work. 


This surely will have massive repercussions but UAE is running out of cash so they do not have much choice.

UAE nationals are brought up in a system which is defined as "cradle to grave" handouts by the state.

Emiratis get free housing, free medicare including around the world, free education, among other benefits like lower hours of work until a few years ago with high salaries (double and triple that of expats) and hefty bonuses.

Not to mention ever so often they would get a 100% hike in salaries in the public sector jobs which is pretty much 80-90% of all employment of Emiratis.

UAE and GCC is having an interesting conundrum. 

They do not want expats and are ejecting them while they don't have the cash to continue paying enormous salaries and benefits to the locals.

Let's hope these welfare cuts do not create turmoil.

UAE tried to cut medical benefits in 2015 for Emiratis but it had to be reversed in 2016 due to Yemen backlash and was supported by rising oil prices.

However, oil prices are going down again and coffers are empty across GCC now.

Last week it came in Kuwait media that they cannot find locals who are refusing to even apply for jobs due to fear of working long hours.

Similarly, in Saudi there are rumors of cutting expat dependency fees, however, the Govt is denying it.

Even in Saudi, locals are refusing to apply for work for the most part.


Meanwhile, Saudi itself is running out of money and despite hiking water and electricity charges by 400% to 600%, starting hefty expat dependent fees and ejecting 2 million expats or more, they are now contemplating toll roads when their population as a whole is declining.


Kuwait plans to introduce higher fees for expats for health insurance plus make it compulsory for all tourists to have health insurance.

Nod to compulsory health insurance, fees for expats


While in Dubai, business after business is collapsing like banks, airlines, supermarkets and next is the turn of schools.


GEMS is one of the largest school owners in GCC and had major investors like Blackrock investing into their schools.

GEMS schools was managed through Abraaj who have collapsed and absconded, therefore, Blackrock is in trouble along with other major investors. 

It is unknown if any cash reserves were invested into other projects or funds of Abraaj which is highly likely causing a loss for GEMS as much as it did to all others including Air Arabia airlines, pension fund of Kuwait etc.

GEMS had planned an IPO this year to pay off loans to Abraaj and cash out.

Now the IPO has been shelved in July 2018 due to Abraaj turmoil, school fees have been frozen in Dubai by the Govt students are declining and investors want their money out but Abraaj collapse has frozen everything and created a lot of friction.


Several universities from UK have started a boycott of their Dubai campuses. although the British "spy" (according to UAE) was released but we don't know the current status of this boycott of most British universities based in the UAE that appeared on the BBC in late Nov.

But it's likely that these British academics do not wish to teach any students in the UAE any more for fear of repression as well as their own well being and safety.

This alone will hurt the education of thousands of students and bring to a halt over a dozen universities in the UAE if it is not resolved immediately.

But the speed at which foreigners including British are being arrested almost on a weekly basis and the fact that UK Govt has a travel alert on UAE, it does not seem this may get resolved so easily.

In addition, all UK and Australian newspapers published a major expose on Dubai that we will not put here but you may search online, including a 1 hour documentary on BBC TV last week.

Matthew Hedges: University staff's Dubai campus boycott

Just in 2018, 2 schools shut down and one closed after 30 years in Dubai.

Second school in Dubai set to close its doors to students

Today it has come out that 2 more schools in Dubai will merge because they cannot operate independently.

We have also found out that some schools in Dubai are offering 25% to 50% discount on their school fees which is probably happening for the first time in history anywhere on planet Earth.

This clearly shows the stress that all sorts of businesses are going through before they all collapse.

Anyone who is hopeful of a recovery in the next few years may need to get a dose of reality and look around them and ask themselves : 

When will their own business collapse and how many people they personally know who have lost their jobs or jailed or deported or have had their salaries reduced forcibly within GCC in the last 2-3 years?

We don't wish any of this on anybody but we are just pointing out the reality with facts in order for everyone to plan for their own future.

Two UK schools in Dubai to merge next year 

Years after we have suggested that things will collapse, some "highly educated, over paid, bright minds" now are suggesting the same when it is crystal clear that GCC economies simply cannot sustain the oncoming "perfect storm".


Dubai education providers at 'tipping point' with increase in schools

In such a grim scenario, jobs are hard to find and even those with jobs cannot survive because some new fees or fines are being hiked or introduced on a daily or weekly basis while the cost of living has climbed to one of the most expensive in the world from being one of the cheapest just a decade ago.

While, no matter what the business, it will have difficulty to survive except for people who have over USD 5-10m in cash in their account and wish to keep losing it until their saving of USD 5-10m drops and drops lower, every passing year.

Anyone with less than USD 5m in the GCC may God bless them all.


11 comments:

  1. One small correction: GEMS investment was done by Blackstone fund and not Blackrock

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dear Madhu,

      You are totally right. Apologies for the mistake.

      It was a memory error as both names are so close.

      According to the Reuters link it is indeed Blackstone.

      Nice catch!

      Thank you for pointing it out.

      Delete
  2. You are entirely correct in your commentary about the cost of living in the UAE. We have finally left the country this year after more than a decade spent bringing up our kids there, due to spiralling costs on rent, DEWA, traffic fines, SALIK, various charges, school fees etc. School fees are unjustifiably high in this country. When one spends upwards of USD 25,000 per child on school fees alone and if one has at least 2 children to educate and no educational allowance support from the workplace (many, many expats have seen their educational allowances cut or reduced significantly) the math just doesn't add up anymore. And lets not even begin to include all the overpriced, substandard classes like swimming and tennis and football and rugby that can easily cost upwards of USD 1000 per child per month. In the end, despite the tax free status, the UAE just doesn't remain an economically viable option for a young family to bring up their kids (And lets face it....these are your high spending consumers that keep the economy humming).
    Who are these people with USD 5-10 million in spare cash that can afford to just let it all dwindle away?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hello,

      Many thanks for sharing your personal experience and anecdotal observations.

      Really appreciate it.

      Cost of living has gone through the roof.

      Dubai was always a bachelor's town and it has been my prediction since about 2011-2012 that "if one cannot burn money in order live in Dubai then they won't be able to live in Dubai."

      Until 2011-2012, Dubai expenses only hurt people with low pay checks of below 5,000 dirhams a month salary which is approx 85% of Dubai population.

      It was expected to worsen every year as salaries were dropping every year (including not being paid, massive cut in bonuses and cut in benefits etc) and on the other hand a ridiculous rise in basic every day expenses (plus fines) as you elaborated.

      You may not believe but there are technically over 88,000 millionaires living in the UAE.

      https://gulfnews.com/how-to/your-money/heres-how-many-millionaires-live-in-uae-right-now-1.2218094

      If we go to just the Top 2,000 or 3,000 that's a lot of people who have the cash and live in UAE and we are personally familiar with dozens of them. They are kind of invisible except in their fancy cars on the roads or at fancy restaurants.

      Just one reason to support the high millionaires is that pretty much all sorts of banks from every country in the world are in Dubai to cater to these mega rich, although it is not profitable and carries lot of risks of compliance therefore many are departing.

      Just one example you may or may not have seen in the last several weeks although we blogged on it that Al Habtoor (one of the wealthiest in the world) who certainly had a lot cash is losing his cash rapidly as we mentioned.

      4 of his top 5 star hotels collapsed (now managed by himself and 2 by Hilton instead) and now he is complaining on global TV.

      He is begging to cancel VAT since it is now hurting him.

      First the cost of living hit the poorest until 2012, middle class got hurt post 2012 until 2017, now it is hurting the Top 100 people so he is begging to remove VAT and begging the Govt to stop building any more!

      You must watch the videos.

      And these rich and the Govt and the mega corporations have not even completely collapsed yet! :)

      Leading Emirati businessman calls for reassessment of VAT in UAE

      https://www.thenational.ae/uae/leading-emirati-businessman-calls-for-reassessment-of-vat-in-uae-1.780437

      Hotel Mogul Says There Are Enough Rooms in Dubai

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-29/dubai-hotel-mogul-habtoor-says-don-t-build-more-hotels-in-city

      Delete
  3. Didn't Abraaj exit completely from GEMS back in 2013?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hello,

      Yes, in their PE investment Abraaj did exit in 2013.

      However, we believe that Abraaj had investments through themselves or their clients plus Abraaj could potentially have loans given to GEMS.

      Repaying large investors like Blackstone, Abraaj and Abraaj's PE clients and perhaps repay Abraaj loans, is the reason GEMS was planning to do an IPO.

      If you notice, Abraaj collapsed in Feb 2018 and requested for liquidation in June 2018 and subsequently when all hopes were lost, GEMS cancelled their IPO in July 2018.

      We believe that there is a strong connection between Abraaj (and it's clients) and GEMS until this day.

      We will never know this in a public fashion due to the cloak of private equity surrounding all these transactions.

      Since dozens (if not hundreds) of cases are subjudice, there is a small chance we may hear something over the years as multiple courts unravel the cloak.

      Hope this clarifies.

      Delete
  4. Abraj has been or going to take over by NBK national bank of kuwait..is it a good move by them?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hello dear,

      Thank you for your question.

      Kuwait pension fund has over USD 400m or maybe more stuck in Abraaj funds. Abraaj has several legal entities for each fund.

      NBK is taking over 1 such entity. We believe the value of that entity is less than 1.3% of the USD 15b losses that Abraaj is facing.

      Kuwait has no choice but to sink themselves into managing this else they may lose the entire money. You will note that the deal says that no Abraaj employee will be taken over.

      https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/abraaj-credit-fund-said-to-be-taken-over-by-kuwait-s-nbk-capital

      It is a step in the right direction so let us see who else can buy anything from Abraaj because there are many obstacles yet to be overcome.

      Thank you.

      Delete
  5. "However, we believe that Abraaj had investments through themselves or their clients plus Abraaj could potentially have loans given to GEMS."

    What do you mean potentially? Either you know or you dont know and are just speculating. Everything after this sentence is you speculating about what may or may not happen.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dear fatghandu,

      If you do not understand the world of private equity, how it works and how secretive those deals are, then you will not appreciate how this whole thing works.

      Nothing is disclosed to no one about any deal so unless one is the owner of GEMS or his lawyer or the 3 people working on this deal, no news will ever come out hence the speculative element and can never ever be confirmed unless lawsuits happen which is what is happening now.

      We may hear connections between the two in the future if at all but if the entities are sold to some other private equity then we will never hear anything ever.

      Thank you,

      Delete
  6. It seems that they are heading towards a chaos.

    ReplyDelete

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