Sunday, December 16, 2018

Luxury Global Real Estate Prices In Free Fall Throughout 2018 Except Philippines and China

We have advised all our multi million dollar clients since late 2014 (when oil first started it's precipitous decline) to exit whatever property investments they have as much as they can, anywhere in the world. 

Almost all have listened to us wisely. 

Because we have been 100% correct!

We continue to remain negative on global real estate investments in top cities like London and NY and others like across Canada and Australia or in UAE and India.


We had even issued a warning alert on our blog on 2 Aug 2018.

All our reasons remain intact as mentioned in the post which you must read carefully. 

In fact all of the reasons have worsened, as Govt after Govt goes after investors who invest money abroad and currencies decline and jobs get eliminated in millions thus destroying demand and creating a domino affect.

Next few years will be so much more destructive in real estate prices than you can even imagine today. Consider yourself warned.


Let's analyze if we were correct or not?

Here is latest Vancouver data:


We expect Canadian real estate to simply plunge in 2019 along with their currency. 

Huawei dispute between Canada and China will be the external catalyst that will create a huge mess for Canada all around. There are so many other factors that it requires a separate post on this subject.

Huawei CFO's Arrest Could Be Last Straw For Vancouver's Struggling Housing Market

Here is "potential AUD 300 BILLION planned bail out" in Australia as the real estate collapse aims to bring even the Australian banks down.


Here is more reality of Australia:


Here is London, UK where some of the wealthiest people from around the world are invested heavily:


Here is NY area where again some of the wealthiest people on the planet are invested:


Here is Dubai but unlike in any other city in the world they are not permitted to use the word decline or plunge or collapse: 


More on Dubai:


We have recommended Spain since 2014 but only in pockets like Madrid or Barcelona post the collapse and so far we have been correct. 

They have good tourism and prices had become over sold and as the collapse rises and more people retire in Britain or Germany more people will relocate to Spain due to the Mediterranean sun.


Here is Melbourne:


Here is Saudi (worst declines in the world):


Here is HK decline:


Here is Toronto decline:


Here is decline of Mumbai, India:


Here is decline in Malaysia:

Now, let's discuss where we have been recommending to invest:

China and Philippines.

Philippines is going to continue to boom and increase in real estate prices and volumes. We highly recommend to invest here.

One of the major reasons being that all major countries have put foreign buyer taxes between 12% to 18% EXCEPT Philippines hence we can give you an insider tip: 

Since 2018, the only country in the world where Chinese are investing heavily is Philippines.

There are political reasons and other factors at play here but 2 major reasons are: gambling is permitted and secondly, there is zero tax on foreign buyers (almost the only country in the world besides USA that allows foreign buyers but has zero foreign buyers tax).

USA does not have purchase taxes on property but they withhold 10% on every sale due to withholding taxes on capital gains plus filing of US tax returns is compulsory.

Anything from hotels to condos is a solid medium to long term investment in the Philippines.

If anyone needs assistance or guidance, we shall be pleased to assist to invest in Philippines.



We do not need to mention here as to what happens over the next few years in any country once the Chinese show up and start buying!

Secondly, China which is rising as we have expected over the last decade.

Please DO NOT trust any western media or bank research. They are all liars except when presenting some Govt data (without analysis) and do not have any investors interest at heart. Otherwise, they have an opinion on everything under the sun.

If the media and bank research made you believe that China is in trouble then you are being MISLED.

Until this day, despite tariff tantrums of Donald Trump and whatever the stock markets suggest, China real estate market continues to rise.


Unless you live in the house, you should not be owning much real estate nor REITS and nor consider buying any new property except in the 2 countries mentioned above.

Otherwise, Good Luck in finding a buyer!


2 comments:

  1. Hello Sir - Can you clarify what you mean by "foreign buyers tax" or "purchase taxes" here? Are you referring to stamp duty?

    I've been involved in London RE for some time now and they don't have anything called foreign buyers tax specifically targeting Non-UK residents / entities. As of today, they don't even tax capital gains from properties sold by foreigners.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dear Madhu,

      Thank you for your question.

      Yes, UK Stamp duty levied on foreigners for buying property is generally called Foreign Buyers Property Tax but legally has different names in Australia, Canada, UK or NZ or Singapore or UAE. In UK it is technically called the UK Stamp Duty.

      Our clients are now being forced to pay 15% for all properties above GBP 1.5m. No wonder demand has been dropping year after year.

      You may read more here:

      London Luxury Homes Face New Hit as U.K. Plans Foreign Buyer Tax
      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-30/may-plans-to-hike-u-k-property-tax-for-foreign-home-buyers
      https://www.mortgagefinancegazette.com/market-news/housing/plans-tax-overseas-residential-property-investors-03-10-2018/

      Hope this helps.

      Good luck in your business.

      Delete

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