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| Newspaper Image, 18 Aug 2018, Sydney |
The No. 1 reason being the lack of jobs.
Second biggest reason, as is in the case of Australia, is that corruption and cutting corners by developers is now at dangerous levels so much so that newly built luxury condo buildings are actually collapsing.
If you watch this video you will be shocked that a major condo in Sydney is being held together by some sort of iron machines to prevent the entire tower from collapsing.
More than 1 in 10 Australians who are home owners, as on date, are in negative equity and if they sold their house today, they shall be unable to pay their home loans back in full.
This means that the value of their homes or condos is less than the loans on the property and they have lost all their equity and many will be insolvent like in the 2008 crisis in America.
This number of 10% "insolvent" home owners can only rise in the months ahead, with job losses, business shutdowns, plunging real estate etc causing further stress on the corrupt and already weak banking system.
This number of 10% "insolvent" home owners can only rise in the months ahead, with job losses, business shutdowns, plunging real estate etc causing further stress on the corrupt and already weak banking system.
What we have predicted for years, not to buy real estate in all booming cities worldwide, is turning into a nightmare for normal folks as on date and millions will go bankrupt and lose millions each.
This video was broadcast on Australian National TV on the acclaimed 60 Minutes Australia show this week on Feb 4, 2019.
A newly built luxury condo tower is collapsing in Sydney, thousands of towers are at risk, Govt is not taking any action, sales and prices are dropping and Australia could become a slum, according to one expert on the documentary.
This video is a Must Watch.
They are talking thousands of buildings all across Australia that have fire safety issues and could even collapse.
While, retailers are shutting down for several years now.
11 Jan 2019: Crabtree & Evelyn to wind down Australian business
More than a dozen retailers have shut down completely across Australia in the last 2 years.
Among big names, Gap and Esprit have shut all their stores across Australia, while others are smaller but most have shut all their stores except a few like Laura Ashley and Max Brenner who may still have a few stores open.
It's a long list of closures:
MAGGIE T
DIANA FERRARI
GAP
AVON
ESPRIT
METALICUS
DOUGHNUT TIME
ZUMBO PATISSERIE
TOYS R US
SHOES OF PREY
MAX BRENNER
ROGER DAVID
LAURA ASHLEY
A large beauty brand with 28 stores collapsed and shut all stores just this week.
Major Australian banks have been firing thousands of employees and doing fraud against all customers for years now.
We have been warning and advising all nations who choose to go against China that their economies will collapse if they do not have a good, friendly and healthy relationship with China (being the largest trading partner of majority nations in the world and the largest buyer and seller of almost everything on this planet).
Chinese consumer is the king.
Australia is falling into a trap of Donald Trump to make moves against China which will hurt all Australians very badly and is going to accelerate the decline of Australia even faster than it already is and truly make it a slum in the years ahead.
Australian Govt must not choose sides and must remain neutral. Provided they read our blog and choose to follow our advice. Hint: In the Huawei case, don't ban Huawei.
Meanwhile, the infrastructure across Australia is falling apart.
5 Feb 2019: Australia flood crisis continues
Thousands of towers across Australia are now unsellable with billions lost and thousands will lose their life savings and tens of thousands more will lose their jobs in the months ahead.
Just today, Feb 9, 2019, the Australian Central Bank has issued a warning.
Can you imagine how bad it can get when the question being asked is not whether it will fall or not, but how much will it crash?
Even the developers themselves are saying that prices drop will be much worse in 2019 than in 2018.
31 Jan 2019: Housing market falls ‘may be worse’ in 2019
Citibank has woken up as well and is warning one of the worst drops in Australia than any other country.
A big reason for the drop is, because like Canada, UK, Singapore, UK etc, Australia also put a new foreign buyer's tax on new foreign property buyers, and in the past Chinese used to make up 70%-80% of new home buyers who have now dried up.
The demand plunged and that was the tipping point when it happened in late 2017 and early 2018 at that time we advised to get out of Australia or not to focus there for investing or immigrating any more.
Investors will get ZERO back for condos they purchased for AUD 800k plus. That's just one tower in Sydney.
Imagine there are thousands of towers like those across Australia where prices could plunge over 50%.
As is the case with major media, they peddle lies.
Almost everyone knows that CNBC lies all day long.
Nothing could be a bigger indicator predicting a market top in Australia than the rubbish that CNBC published today.
9 Feb 2019: Australia has gone 27 years without a recession—here's what's behind the country's economic run
If you read this article, it can only mean one thing: RUN!
Immigration has helped Australia avoid economic problems in the past.
This chart shows that Australian GDP overall and per capita, both is dropping, exactly for the reasons mentioned above starting with quality of immigrants.
Australian currency is also a great indicator as well of a massive slowdown. It peaked in Aug 2011 at 1.10. Today, it's at 0.70 level, a decline of 36% in 7 years approx.
It did go below 0.68 for a day last month but once it drops below 0.68 versus the USD, it will drop to 0.60 level, and after that it can only stop it at 0.50 level.
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| AUDUSD chart 1988-Feb 8, 2019 |
All we can say is that if you are planning to invest in Australia, looking for work in Australia or migrating to Australia, then STOP and don't even think about it.
However, if you are young and are ok with lower end jobs over the long term with no savings or wish to retire, then perhaps you may consider. For doing new business, we doubt that you will be successful because the tailwind is against you.
However, if you are young and are ok with lower end jobs over the long term with no savings or wish to retire, then perhaps you may consider. For doing new business, we doubt that you will be successful because the tailwind is against you.
Newly built Australian towers are actually going to fall down along with their economy.
This gas station will crash. Australia has inflated the real estate market and nothing more.
ReplyDeleteI recommend to watch a movie "The big short" about the real estate crisis in the US in 2008
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgqG3ITMv1Q
Hello AB,
DeleteThanks for the link.
I have seen that movie twice and read the book as well.
I have watched Wolf of Wall Street thrice which also I recommend.
James Rickards book Currency Wars also echoes my comments, was published 5-6 years ago.
The Coming Bond Market Collapse is by Michael Pento also echoes my comments, although I believe it will happen gradually since billionaires won't let their money go to zero but they are surely losing their grasp every year.
Talks of another QE are in the air now again....
Thanks and best wishes,
I think that a big crisis will start from the end of March (Brexit). You just think about it. Britain's exit from the EU will be on March 29 at 23.00 local time, on this time in New York will be 6 pm and the wall street will be closed.
ReplyDeleteVery good time for the organization of a major crisis
Hello AB,
DeleteI disagree, nothing will happen upon Brexit.
Like Y2K or 2008 crisis etc, these events don't impact 90-95% of the world population, except in jobs.
Secondly, remember nothing in UK happens without the consent of the Queen. If she is on board, things will eventually fall in place.
Thirdly, I am in favor of Brexit and Grexit etc from day one because EU should and must collapse, but ever so gradually.
British people should learn how to stand on their 2 own legs (without EU), the British tax payers don't need to pay off the losses of Italians or Greeks into perpetuity. British have had enough.
It was the right thing to do Brexit.
On a weekend nothing will happen because at least, I give it to the developed countries that they take their own sweet time and plan ahead and give years of advance notice before taking any action so everyone concerned is well prepared and takes preventive action in order to collectively prevent any massive chaos as much as possible (just like preparing for a typhoon with days of advance warning).
The world economy is very interconnected and well planned though it's slowing and becoming de globalised due to demand destruction which again I have been advocating about degloblaization for about 7-8 years, we have deglobalization everywhere. This also helps reduce any chaos in the event of any catastrophe. Deglobalization is on my twitter for over 7-8 years and with my clients too. almost no one speaks of deglobalization except 1-2 persons on this planet who started now, but I believe I was the first at the time.
With China and Russia on the rise together now, rest of the world can eat crow, as they sow, so shall they reap.
200m Russians and 1.4b Chinese tell them all to buzz off and look at their own Govts for a job or staying alive or for food or goods. But at least they have not put bans or sanctions or tariffs.
Imagine is China banned all goods and asked everyone not to deal with USA or UK or Canada or Germany. lol. China is taking the high road and leading with moral authority.
Whoever is not aligned with China will lose massively, now it's the call of the Govts of other countries who wish to remain anti China or anti Russia.
The time has come to choose sides in order to save the collapse of entire economies, banking systems, public, jobs and everything else which already is occurring at a high speed but will accelerate in non China aligned economies in the years ahead.
Trump's tariffs have created a war cry and it is very clear that sides need to be chosen, but Trump and America are completely on the wrong side of history and I have commented in my blogs months before any one else did in June 2018 but before that to my clients in Mar 2018.
Trump has to and must withdraw his tariffs else will pay (along with American public) a very heavy price.
but crisis due to Brexit, I wouldn't worry about it. It's actually giving a good excuse to British companies who are losing money to fire employees using Brexit as an excuse.
Hope this helps.
Thank you and best wishes.
We will see. I think that there will be a collapse as in the 29th year of great depression.
Deleteany australian readers interested in an invite to a discord chat server to discuss such matters?
DeleteHi Mr. Manoj,
ReplyDeleteAs usual, I really enjoy your articles and insights about the global economy and the financial situation of the world. Love this blog.. Can you please shed some light on why the EU should collapse or be disassembled. I know that it's a failed project which was originally meant to ease trade between countries and now evolved...
Thank you,
Hello Mr Steve,
DeleteThank you very much for following and being a regular visitor. Really appreciate it and also your interesting query.
EU was a failed mechanism from the very beginning on 1 Jan 1999.
I was too young then and even today have the souvenirs of all the EUR notes and coins issued that were circulated within European banks worldwide to each employee.
The concept on paper looks amazing (like everyone lives happily ever after until the end of time but reality is starkly the opposite) and believe me as one of my dear Italian friend who is quite a senior banker pointed out while in discussions amongst us that it was done for peace to which I responded with quite an alarm because it has done the maximum damage within EU.
He pointed out that a Nobel Peace Prize was also handed out several years ago which makes it more of an "inside" job than something done for the benefit of the masses.
Let me explain.
Let us assume that someone is "happily" married. We all know we have ups and downs in life when we are married to one person.
Now, just imagine for a second, being married to 27 (total are 28) member states!
How can anyone make any decision when 28 people are sitting on a table and everyone wants something for their own betterment or that of their country. It's untenable especially in the long run.
There is no way in hell that there can be a chance to make any sensible decision unless some autocratic ruler pushes it through.
Hence, all decisions since inception have been made as someone from the top dictating it.
This brings us to the second point which is that the unelected officials sitting in Brussels make all the decisions from ECB to member states to bail outs.
Elected PM's or Presidents have surrendered their powers to the EU for the sake of betterment. You may remember that Greek Finance Minister was forced to resign since he wanted things for his country's betterment in 2012/2013.
Thirdly, there are 3 agreements, Schengen agreement for visas, EMU (European Monetary Union) agreement for monetary purposes of single currency and EU Free Trade Agreement for trade (UK was only the part of the third one).
This itself won't work because there are different parties in all 3 agreements. In addition, the most important part, that they have no fiscal unanimity for tax collection, no military or police unanimity because they all have their own and then there are 3 different agreements.
Are you with me so far or is your head spinning yet? :)
When you mix all the above, it creates a system where languages are different, work ethics are different, food and culture is different, historical animosities exist that are centuries old from Roman empire to Austro-Hungarian empire to Portuguese and Spanish empire etc, add to it that some want sanctions on Russia, Iran etc and some don't.
Such a "marriage" of unequal partners that is too large and too different, simply cannot function.
Can you imagine a German, Italian and an Austrian working happily with a Greek and living with a Romanian and an Italian plus a Slovak and an Icelandic and add 20 more nationalities to it, working together or living together?
What has kept USA united and India somewhat united (despite both being so vast) is that they kind of speak the same language, have same military/police, same tax/fiscal structures, same enemies etc thus they always become united despite their internal disagreements.
However, this is impossible in EU.
EU was a dream (on paper), is a dream and will always remain a dream until it falls apart.
2/2
DeleteWith Brexit we have seen that even the Queen (or the Britishers) has had enough and doesn't want to send billions to help the "poor" and "bankrupt" in Italy or Greece or whoever else.
Hope this clarifies the situation why I believe that without military and fiscal unity plus unelected officials in Brussels having all the powers and printing money (debt on the tax payer) at will, cannot survive in any shape especially when their economies are tumbling in retail, with refugees and their entire banking systems are simply collapsing.
Until they split and divide themselves back into their own national states within their cultures, working for the betterment of their own citizenry they will keep falling apart.
Let's hope that that the EU citizens can see like the pro Brexit Britishers did and withdraw from EU before everyone is handed a bill of hundreds of billions of dollars when they check out.
Thank you and best wishes,
Hi Mr. Manoj,
DeleteThanks a lot for the detailed answer. Much appreciated. Very well said and very true.
You should create a YouTube channel or a Podcast. The info you share with the public is eye opening and very informative.
Thank you,
Hello Mr Steve,
DeleteThank you very much for response.
I have thought about Youtube or a podcast but maybe I am more a written kind of guy. I may do those in the future sometime and will certainly investigate. But thanks for the suggestion.
The reason I began this blog was because some people used to debate with me that I never said things and in future I claim that I had predicted them.
This blog was meant to be a record for me and my clients of what I had projected in the past.
Now it has become popular and is amongst some of the top most websites in the world in less than 8 months.
I am pleased, humbled and grateful that my unique perspectives that were limited to my clients have a much wider audience.
And anyone who disputes me, I can easily refer them to my blog of the months and years gone by. :)
Thank you and with best regards,