Impractical Saudi Aramco IPO Comes To An End, More Financial Turmoil Ahead

We have heard about the Saudi Aramco IPO from about 2016 since when Saudi and GCC went into serious crisis mode.

We have always believed that it was a marketing ploy and that the IPO would never occur.

Our reasons are very simple. 

The information that oil money is partly used by Saudi family members can NEVER be disclosed in any prospectus nor can it be accounted for, no matter what the super duper bankers, high flying analysts or super hero TV commentators may say or believe.

Anyone who has known how these GCC countries work, knows that disclosure of anything within these nations is not in their interest whatsoever. 

You may note how this drama has unfolded.

In 2016, everyone was surprised with this news from a Saudi company with a USD 2 trillion valuation! And we were chuckling.

Apr 2016: Aramco value to top $2 trillion, less than 5 percent to be sold, says prince

By 2017, this value had dropped to USD 1 trillion. We chuckled even more.

Mar 2017: Funds expect Saudi Aramco to be valued around $1-1.5 trillion: survey

Last night, the chief marketing arm for the elites (Reuters) reported and you should read the comments of the King of Saudi Arabia's.

They are exactly what our sentiments have been since day 1:

"The king’s interlocutors told him that the IPO, far from helping the kingdom, would undermine it. Their main concern was that an IPO would bring full public disclosure of Aramco’s financial details, the sources said."

27 Aug 2018: Exclusive: Saudi king tipped the scale against Aramco IPO plans

Even that Saudi project worth half a trillion dollars, NEOM, will never see one project being completed, never mind an entire city.

The GCC crisis is unfolding very rapidly in 2018. 

Multiple giant contractors have gone bankrupt, defaulted or have left the region, multiple international corporations including oil majors and top notch banks have exited, largest multi billion dollar failures in the world of Saudi Oger, Schon Properties and Abraaj have occurred, never mind the hundreds of businessmen that are at hundreds of millions dollars each have gone bust or run away or are in jails. 

Plus expats are leaving Saudi in their millions as well as from across the GCC.

We have been predicting since 2015 for a complete economic collapse in GCC and Saudi due to lack of funds (including in their reserves), severely depleted oil income, wars all around, pegged currency (making it the most expensive in the world), non-acceptance of Chinese yuan for oil, rapidly declining currencies in Russia, Africa, Egypt, Turkey, Iran etc, terror across the entire Middle East and serious all encompassing unending dispute/war with Iran, Qatar, Yemen, Turkey etc.

Now, Saudis don't even have access to bonds (because they have too much debt) as well as to the funds from Aramco IPO, they have resorted to accepting loans (they took out a USD 11bn loan last week, shock and surprise but not to us), the only option left is to accept yuan and sell oil to China. The impact of which will be detrimental to everyone around the world when that occurs. But it must occur, now it is just a matter of time.

Here is the scathing article by the Jewish media themselves yesterday, elaborating on our firmly held views since July 2015 that Saudi has started the beginning of their end.

Opinion Aramco Flop: Beginning of the End for Crown Prince MBS' New Saudi Arabia